February 2022


It appears that Putin has just launched a major invasion of Ukraine. Russia violently annexed Crimea in 2014 and also small sections of Eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainians didn't put-up much of a fight and there was little response from the West so he has apparently decided to do it again, to steal more territory. But this time there has been a major reaction from the West, which is only likely to get much stronger in the coming hours, and it is also much less likely that the Ukrainian army will roll over. He has asked the Ukrainians to surrender. Don't bet on it.

Putin put himself in a bind, and he has lashed out. This is very similar to the coup in Burma, and which changed everything, since the Bamar public decided to join the fight for freedom. Now the Burma junta is struggling; at some point the people will win - the generals will be defeated.

For Putin, the Russian Ruble may lose half its value, and also the Moscow Stock Exchange. There is already a strong anti-Putin/pro-democracy movement in Russia, and this is only going to energize them.

Putin is one of the leading arms suppliers for the Tatmadaw terrorists. How ironic, and fitting, that he seems to have repeated their mistake. Free Burma! Free Ukraine! Free Russia!

2. For Ukraine, this is what has happened. Putin has made one of the greatest mistakes in history (like Napoleon invading Russia). He now realizes this, but - for him - there is no going back. The personal costs would be too great. So he will destroy Ukraine and live out the rest of his days in Russia as a dictator/king. That is his new plan. Maybe after a decade the world will forget.

The only solution is for the Russians themselves to arrest and/or kill him. There really is no other choice. Until this happens, it will only get worse. Indeed, it could get a lot worse, and not only for Ukraine. Putin now appears to be mad - as imprisoned opposition leader Navalny called him - insane. He may attack anyone, including using any weapon. It's unlikely that he would use a nuke, but as today shows his troops could cause a major nuclear accident at a Ukrainian reactor, affecting the entire world (including you, China!).

There's no way to know how many loyal guards surround him, or even where he is - probably at the remote palace that Navalny revealed. But someone has to get him. It's the only way. The West isn't going to invade Russia, or risk a direct war with Russian forces in Ukraine. Even if the Russian people rise up, which would be great, he still won't yield. As has been pointed out, using his own favorite story, he is a trapped rat. Trapped, rabid rats need to be put down.

March 2022

3. Ukraine and Burma

What is happening in Ukraine is an opportunity for the Burma freedom movement. The world has ignored the country. It is not ignoring Ukraine. It has imposed extremely punitive sanctions on Putin/Russia and close to ten countries are arming the Ukrainian fighters.

The calculus for the Burma movement - NUG/NUCC/PDFs and EAOs - is simple. Shout, in one interview and press release after another, about how the atrocities are worse in Burma - both Karen and Karenni children were murdered in the last two days. The junta has a policy of burning villagers alive. And raping girls. The crimes against humanity go on and on, right up to genocide. But how no one is helping the freedom/pro-democracy movement. We need guns! Ask the Finns - the head of the Finnish Government, and the Lithuanians, and the Norwegians, and of course Boris Johnson, Biden, Macron, the new German Chancellor, etc. Ask them by name, on camera. Be strong. Be elegant. Be persuasive! This is the time for the NUG/NUCC and anyone else - literally any CSO, that can attract journalist attention, to ask for help - guns, and to ask for them again and again.