DICTATOR WATCH
(www.dictatorwatch.org)

Contact: Roland Watson, roland@dictatorwatch.org

THE BURMA CEASEFIRE - WHY WOULD THE ETHNIC ARMIES SIGN NOW?

July 25, 2015

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http://www.dictatorwatch.org/prwhysignnow.html

The military dictatorship of Burma's propaganda machine is once again spewing disinformation that a Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement is close at hand. The regime is doing everything it can to create an irresistible momentum to concluding a deal before the upcoming election. It is trying to back the Ethnic Armed Organizations into a corner, even though none of the ethnic core demands, starting with peace itself, and federal democracy, will be achieved.

In the last few months, the Burma Army has launched the following military offensives and attacks:

1. Against the KIA in Kachin State near Putao; in the jade area near Hpa-Kant; near the Chinese border; and in Northern Shan State.
2. Against the TNLA in Northern Shan State.
3. Against the MNDAA in and around Kokang.
4. Against the SSA-N in Shan State.
5. Against the SSA-S in Shan State.
6. Against the UWSA in Shan State.
7. Against the DKBA in Karen State.
8. Against the AA in northern Arakan and Southern Chin States.
9. And, with countless raids against Rohingya villages and IDP camps in Arakan State.

(Please see: http://www.dictatorwatch.org/burmadeathwatch.html)

These are the actions of a war-monger, not a peace-maker. There is no possibility - none at all - that a signed NCA will end this aggression. Rather, after the ceasefire all the Burma Army's violence will be blamed on the EAOs. This transference of responsibility will further be accepted by the International Community, which will continue to be blinded to the true situation by its lust to exploit the country.

Also, during last week's negotiation session, the lead dictatorship representative, Aung Min, warned that if a deal was not signed, the EAOs would then have to start over after the election with the new government that has been chosen. The EAO leaders need to consider this warning carefully, because its signaling is highly significant if not prophetic.

If the November election is held, and if it is free and fair, there is no doubt that pro-democracy parties, starting with the NLD, will receive the majority of the popular vote. This means, according to Aung Min, that the EAOs will be forced to renegotiate with these parties. However, the NLD and other elected democratic representatives (e.g., from the SNLD) will undoubtedly be much more sympathetic to the EAO positions. Indeed, using his own argument, the EAOs should absolutely wait until after the vote to continue the negotiations, since they are much more likely, if not guaranteed, to get what they want.

Nonetheless, Aung Min said this as a warning. This can only mean one of two things. First, even if democrats do win the election, the EAOs will still have to deal with the military, which will not only continue to be warlike, it will be angry at the election result. Or, secondly, Aung Min is telegraphing something that the world does not know, but which has clearly already been decided at the top level of the dictatorship. The election will be rigged and the regime will maintain both political and military power. And, it will still be angry and will openly follow its only true objective with the ethnic nationalities, which is to conquer them completely and turn the country into a Burman State.

Once again, to repeat the point in my article, Burma Election Scenarios, the last thing that the EAOs want is to sign a false peace and then watch the dictatorship steal the election. The Senior Delegation must stay firm. It must reject any deal until after the election is completed and the results are known.