DICTATOR WATCH
(www.dictatorwatch.org)

Contact: Roland Watson, roland@dictatorwatch.org

BURMA’S THINGYAN TERROR

April 27, 2010

Please forward.


There has been a lot of speculation about who was behind the terror attack on April 15th in Rangoon, that occurred at the X2O Thingyan (New Year) pavilion sponsored by Than Shwe's grandson. One plausible explanation, though, has not yet been mentioned.

An obvious initial suspect was Maung Aye. There is significant discord between Maung Aye and Than Shwe, over the upcoming election and the associated retirement of senior officers. However, one does wonder if Maung Aye would express his discontent in such a bold manner.

There were two major events during Thingyan, and which have not been connected: The bombings, and the arrival of a cargo ship from North Korea, which is believed to have brought equipment for a nuclear weapons program as well as missile components. One explanation links both of these events.

We suspect Than Shwe ordered the bombings, to create a diversion for the cargo shipment. They further were targeted at his grandson's pavilion, to enable him to deny that he was responsible. The following question is quite revealing: If the bombs were a form of attack against Than Shwe, why didn't the culprits wait until his grandson was present?

He can also use the bombings to justify a crackdown against the NLD.

An even more pressing question is why the United States did not stop the North Korean shipment. We are confident that the U.S. was aware of it, just as it knew about the Kang Nam 1 last summer.