March 25, 2021

China is the key to the future of the Burma Revolution. The people will prevail, one way or another, but the extent of their struggle will depend on the CCP. Right now, Xi Jinping is pulling the strings behind the scenes.

He is helping the Min Aung Hlaing dictatorship, in many different ways, from Security Council vetoes to the supply of weapons and Internet and Communications control. He is likely sharing responsibility for overall strategy with Than Shwe.

China no doubt has ordered the regime to fight the protestors with the most brutal crackdown possible. As has been noted, the demonstrators are being punished, not just arrested, and someone told the stormtroopers to do this.

But Xi is also ordering the Northern EAOs (the FPNCC), not to be involved. You would ordinarily expect them to join with the protestors, and the KNLA and KIA (the latter is an FPNCC member, but it has gone its own way), but this has not happened. The rest of the northern EAOs, unlike the Kachin, appear to be dependent on the Wa. But the Wa leaders are now so close to China that they do not even think of themselves as being part of Burma anymore.

All of this implies that the CCP and large Chinese businesses are the enemy as much as the Tatmadaw and police. (The status of the Wa is still open.) Beijing and the big businesses therefore have to pay a price. Their interests need to be confronted and they need to be so pilloried that their reputation in Burma is destroyed for the next one hundred years.

(After the Vietnam War, China invaded Vietnam, and which repelled them. There are now few Chinese businesses in Vietnam.)

Secondly, the people of the different nationalities need to encourage and if necessary compel their ethnic armies to join the KIA and KNLA in fighting the Tatmadaw. The people must demand that they end their submission to China, and instead attack the military camps and police stations in their areas.

Ultimately, China blew it; and, they know it. They stand to lose everything in Burma, from the Belt and Road projects to all their other businesses and investments. They are fighting to preserve them, but sharp heads in Beijing must already realize that MAH is doomed. The CCP actually needs to change sides, immediately. It should communicate to the Northern EAOs that it is OK to fight the Tatmadaw. Then, when Burma is free, the Chinese communist princelings can try to save as much as they can.