BURMA STATUS: SEPTEMBER 2024

1. Say it once. Say it a thousand times. China is the enemy. China does not want Burma to be a democracy. Any type of democracy - federal or confederate. China is a ruthless, murderous dictatorship. Just like MAH. The last thing the Chinese killers want is a peaceful and prosperous Burma. They are one of the last tyrannies left, along with North Korea, Russia and Belarus. Their time is over but they are trying to hold on. Many people are arguing that this is about things like resource and labor exploitation - theft, and access to the Indian Ocean. These commentators are all missing the point. If Burma falls the Chinese people might fight back, too. That's what they are really worried about.

2.. As time has passed we have seen more and more photos of different revolutionary units completing their training. They are obviously now active. The number of attacks against the enemy has steadily increased. Where last year it might have been ten a day, or less, reports are now being published of up to thirty different attacks every single day. The enemy is on the run. Its area of control is shrinking. For a long time Lashio was the focal point, and the terrorist junta did everything it could to keep it. It failed. Now the uprising targets are Mandalay and Myitkyina. The War will essentially be over if either are taken.

3. The lack of unity in fighting is still the most disappointing thing. But it is not as if there is none. Many EAOs and PDFs have fought together, and many if not most PDF soldiers were trained in EAO camps. But this is regional. There is no over-arching national unity in the Revolutionary War, in tactical terms, at least that is apparent publicly. The people all want the junta gone, but this has not translated into working linkages and coordination between the different resistance units. The NUG, the logical organizer of such unity, has not been able to pull it off. But then there is an open question of how much blame they actually have, given that they don't have the money to do it or international support. (These issues are of course linked - it's worth remembering that the United States colonists may well have lost to the British had it not been for the help they got from the French.) Rather, it is the terrorists who are getting help, from China and Russia. Then there are all the groups that either won't fight (notably SSPP, RCSS, Wa, Mongla, Naga), and the groups that are actually fighting alongside the junta (notably the Karen BGF). Burma as always is a mess. But the will of the revolutionaries and their supporters is prevailing. Day by day they are encircling and eradicating the terrorist army.