BURMA COUP - 5

February 17: I'm checking dozens of international news articles every day. And one thing is striking. The journalists are shouting about the crackdowns, even though they have been small, and Min Aung Hlaing, and the effect on international businesses, and what other countries think of the coup, and what sanctions are being implemented, and even if the coup will succeed or not, but only in overall terms. But the thing they are ignoring, amazingly, are the people. They are saying "tens of thousands," when it is hundreds of thousands if not millions, and they are treating the people for the most part as an amorphous blob, just one factor, and for many stories a minor factor at that. This is a struggle between the people and a brutal dictatorship, an armed mafia that has ruined the country for sixty years. The ONLY factor is if the people of Burma have the strength and determination to stand up to the generals, in a way and for a long enough time to force them out. Nobody is writing about this, but it is the only thing that matters. The protests could go on for months. They will go through cycles, some days larger and other days smaller. But I believe in the people. They are now demonstrating in 325 townships around the country. I think this really is the beginning of the end for the dictatorship, and frankly, it could come at any time. Min Aung Hlaing is hiding. He knows he can't risk any exposure because he could be shot, by one of his own, a Tatmadaw soldier or regime cop, and then it would be over. The junta would collapse. There is this undercurrent in international coverage that is elitist, and colonialist, and racist. Aww, isn't it nice, the little brown people of Burma want democracy. Isn't that sweet. Too bad they won't get it. The regime is an all powerful demon that will survive to the end of time. You even see this in supposedly pro-democracy Burma media like Irrawaddy. But this is war! It is underway right now. And the people are tough, and collectively they are much stronger that the criminal cult leaders who rule the country. The protests and national strike can bring them down. Instead of passing judgment, journalists should be writing about how we can help them, what governments, and businesses, and the people of the world can and should do. Not just say it is over before it has even begun.

February 19: It's over. Min Aung Hlaing and his fellow generals are done. Finished. They just don't know it yet. (Maybe they do.) There is NOTHING they can do. The protests and strike will not stop. International sanctions will increase. More international businesses will leave. More and more police and soldiers will turn against them. At some point, they may well be murdered - by their own people.

If they react with extreme violence and do a massive crackdown, they are finished, too. The people will start an internal civil war against them and attack them anywhere and everywhere. They will be isolated like North Korea. When they fall, there will be an International Criminal Court Special Tribunal on Burma (like Yugoslavia before it.) That's if they live that long. They will be at risk of murder from soldiers and police even more quickly.

The question is, how to go? Than Shwe and his wife certainly don't want to leave, and they will hold out for as long as possible. So will Min Aung Hlaing. And then there is the question, where to go? Singapore? But will Singapore even take them, and face the international opprobrium that it will bring? Idi Amin fled to Saudi Arabia. Where will the dictatorship of Burma go? The only option, really, is China.

So go - now! Flee to China! And let the people you have abused and killed for sixty years finally have peace.