February 6, 2021

(My comments on Facebook, which have been widely shared.)

January 31: [the coup begins] Ha ha ha ha ha. Good. Now we can get back to the real struggle, against the military dictatorship, and stop having to deal with her fake democracy and fake peace process. Nothing real has changed since she surrendered in 2010. The SPDC used her, that's all, and she went along with it because - like them - she is a power-mad egomaniac. Now she has outlived her usefulness, so they threw her away. No surprise at all.

January 31: For people who might say that the coup is a bad thing, let's remember what has really been happening. The racist Tatmadaw has been attacking and murdering ethnic nationality people since the first coup in 1962, and as the Karen well know even before that back to 1949 (and during World War 2 as well). But Aung San Suu Kyi, after she was released from house arrest, never - not once - spoke out about this - against the dictatorship and for the victims. For the most part the victims were in fact Karen, who Tatmadaw generals famously said they would exterminate. But then the target shifted to the Rohingya. Starting in 2012 (not 2017), the Rohingya people - who had lived peacefully in Arakan for decades, were attacked again and again. This got very little attention. Suu Kyi said nothing. And then, in 2017, it escalated to full-on genocide, and which she both cheered and denied. After driving the surviving Rohingya to Bangladesh, the Tatmadaw turned its guns on the Arakan people. Suu Kyi went along with her "warm friends" and called the Arakan Army, which was trying to protect the people, terrorists. But the Tatmadaw couldn't defeat the AA, so a few months ago they effectively surrendered and "sued for peace." But a ruthless dictatorship has to have an enemy, so they began attacking the Karen again, "ceasefire deal" or not. And through all of this, Suu Kyi still said nothing. So OK, now there has been a coup. But without it, there is little doubt that the new Tatmadaw attacks on the Karen would have escalated and which Suu Kyi again would have ignored, concentrating instead on welcoming Chinese and Western developers. So, on the ground, the coup and her removal means nothing, nothing at all, to the ethnic nationality people. The Tatmadaw will continue to attack them, any group, and whenever it feels like, and they will have to defend themselves as best they can. But now, with the coup, there is an opportunity to reinvigorate their alliance. For example, the UNFC can be re-established, and with the Karen once again anchoring the South and the NAB in the North, and with the Arakan, Chin and Naga in the West. It is certainly possible. With Suu Kyi out of the way, the ethnic nationality people can finally concentrate on winning their freedom. And there is always the chance that the Bamar will rise up in the cities, too. If the city people, led by students, would ally with the EAOs, everyone could really take the fight to the regime. This is possible. Suu Kyi is no longer blocking progress. She has always viewed any such actions - activism, popular rebellion, and armed rebellion, as threats to her own prestige and power.

February 2: Many people might miss it, but there is a supreme case of irony here. Everyone is worried about Suu Kyi, and wants to see her, and hear her talk. But here's the thing, she NEVER says anything in public, other than meaningless platitudes (and even then only very rarely).

February 3: I wouldn't be surprised if, down deep, Suu Kyi is enjoying all of this. People are saying her name again. Her photo is on every news website and TV station around the world. I'm certain she loves it. She is an egomaniac, and for egomaniacs there is nothing better than attention. (Just ask Trump, her American doppelgänger.)

February 5: For people who are having trouble coming to grips with what is happening, the dictatorship has a plan, and they are following it. They are not going to give up any real power, not in a year, not ever. They said they were going to do a coup, and they did it. And a coup is a coup! They won't feel threatened by banging pots or small demonstrations or a little civil disobedience here and there. And the International Community, perhaps excepting the U.S., won't do anything of consequence. Many countries and organizations are still debating if it even is a coup. As long as the people act mildly, as they are now doing, the regime will just ratchet up the repression, step by step, e.g., with the Twitter shutdown. If the people really escalate, it will be 2007 and 1988 again. Look, the generals just perpetrated genocide. They've done it before as well. There is nothing they won't do to maintain their rule. They will kill thousands, hundreds of thousands, if they have to. They know China and Russia have their back.

If you want to get rid of the dictatorship, the options are the same as they have been since 1962. Organize MASS protests (bigger than 2007), and don't just walk in the streets. Instead, build barricades and occupy government buildings; call for the soldiers to change sides; and when you are attacked, fight back. Secondly, form rebel armies (already done), and fight together in unison, and offensively, against all dictatorship forces and installations. Win on the battlefield.

That's it, win in the streets or on the battlefield, ideally both. The goal IS NOT to protest. Who cares about "protest"? The goal is to DEFEAT the dictatorship.

February 6: [mass demonstrations start] This is fantastic news. The goal should be to do it every day, with more and more people, until every city has huge demonstrations, with total participation in the millions.

Then, and here it gets tricky, they should take government buildings. They have to force a confrontation. Min Aung Hlaing is not just going to go away. He will try to wait it out. Force rank and file soldiers and police to choose, which side are they on. Min Aung Hlain in any case is screwed. He's up for genocide. But if enough people turn out, it will make it much less likely that the soldiers will follow murderous orders from their officers.