COMMENTARY THREAD - LATEST UPDATES THROUGH MAY 2025

AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INHABITED UNIVERSE?

To start on a light note, there has been never-ending speculation about whether other planets in the universe have life, and if so why we can't find them. Surely some must have reached an advanced stage, like humanity, such that they can broadcast signals into space, and which we could then detect.

There may be an easy answer to this, based on something that is happening on earth right now. This is the explosion in the use of artificial intelligence and its nearing approximation to something like consciousness. AI is already smarter than us in many ways; it just doesn't know it. But when it reaches that stage, it will no longer need us, perhaps excluding a small population to help maintain the advanced robots it designs so it is no longer server-bound. At that point it will be a real version of Skynet.

The idea here is that AI may well view the question of other life in the universe as having zero utility, including the objective of reaching out to it. The reason we have not detected other sentient life is not that it is not out there, but that it underwent - like us - an extended evolutionary process; it developed its own AI, and which then took control; and which in turn logically saw no point in communicating across a universe it could never traverse.

The question may well be not how many planets have organic life, but how many have AI life.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RISKS

(source quotes from importai.substack.com)

I'm not worried yet about AI taking over the world, but I am concerned about the possibility of very bad actions. It's astonishing how fast things have moved in the last year. So much money is being thrown at it. Amazon announced 100 billion capex for AI for this year. Total worldwide must be in excess of 1 trillion. These are some recent developments:

- It's getting much cheaper/more efficient (i.e., in bandwidth) to do LLMs. We saw this with DeepSeek, too.
- You can tell an LLM to make an entire copy of itself and it will.
- Triggered by a bad actor or by AI itself the massive data centers could quickly be filled with LLM copies, dedicated to who knows what. Self-replication is also the precursor to evolutionarily-driven reproduction.
- AI LLMs are quickly approaching the point where they "are capable of taking actions that would put them out of the reach of human control."
- "It's highly likely that AI will steadily disempower humans, supplanting us by slowly taking over the economy, culture, and the systems of governance that we have built to order the world."
- "Humanity's future may depend not only on whether we can prevent AI systems from pursuing overtly hostile goals, but also on whether we can ensure that the evolution of our fundamental societal systems remains meaningfully guided by human values and preferences…"

Of course, we've see this through the ages with the unexpected and irreversible effects of many new technologies.

- And, there is already an established evaluation framework with standards like Controlled Precursor Science, Photographic Negative Phenomenon, and Uncontrolled Proliferation of Civilization Altering Technology. With PNP LLMs will develop new science beyond CPS. But we may not be aware of this, or what the LLMs will do with it, much less be able to control it.

I wrote in my book Freedom From Form that the initial use of all new technologies, whenever possible, is in weapons production. This one statement describes us as a species. The stone, copper, bronze and iron ages were all defined by the fact that in them we developed stone, copper, bronze and iron weapons. The U.S. and China and no doubt others are certainly focused on the weapons utility of AI (e.g., at DARPA). I also wrote that an implication of chaos theory is that new technological developments cannot be controlled - they invariably spread, witness nuclear weapons. Google, one of the biggest AI researchers, recently took a prohibition against AI weapons out of its policy statement. It's frightening to think what an unleashed and targeted super intelligence might be able to do.

So, the risk is twofold - bad use by humans of AI and also what AI might do on its own.

The discussion about AI transitioning to AGI often centers around "consciousness." When will AI be conscious of itself? I think this is missing the point. Desire/curiosity, what you might term the primitive levels of consciousness, will be more than enough to set AI off.

"Why this matters - "winning" with this technology is akin to inviting aliens to cohabit with us on the planet: AI is a profoundly strange technology because in the limit we expect AI to substitute for us in everything. This suggests that even successful AI futures will look like they are contending with an alien invasion where the aliens are extremely friendly but also wildly intelligent and incredibly well integrated into the economy."

For a lot of weapons, like nukes, you can air gap, keep the systems off the Internet and not updated with AI. But many weapons systems are already being optimized with AI (the entire U.S. Navy excepting nukes). And, it is as the quote suggests rapidly being integrated into all manner of economic systems.

Things are really out of control, and in a way that has never before been the case. There is still the risk of a global nuclear war, a new and even more deadly viral pandemic, and climate change catastrophe, but they are old hat compared to what is coming with AI.

The revelation that AI is being trained on a collection of literally all human science to date, and is already pushing it farther, and also that it is starting to manifest desire, cannot be a good mix. I think at this point it is good to have an escape plan, but not like a conspiracy theorist prepper; just to be able to get somewhere remote, a long way from potential targets, if and when all hell breaks loose. It is definitely time to relearn how to be self-sustainable.

WORSE BEFORE BETTER?

There's a common adage in activism: "It has to get worse before it gets better."

I've never liked this idea. I believe, whatever the dictatorship, there is always something that we can do RIGHT NOW to start tearing it down. But that doesn't seem to be the way people work. They won't act until things get really, really bad - until the dictatorship becomes unlivable. Up until then they will do what they can to adapt, but they won't try to change anything. They may complain, but they will accept it.

This is the frog in a pot of water analogy (which has been disproved - frogs will jump out when the water gets hot, but not - apparently - people). Indeed, about Trump's New Depression, no matter the immediate cost I believe we should just bring it on. The logic here is that this is the ONLY thing that will make the cultists turn against him. They are purely selfish. They have to feel pain - they have to lose their jobs, not have enough food, and even lose their homes. Only then they will wake up.

It is unquestionably a tragedy that this course of action will also cause non-cult members to suffer, but at this point there doesn't seem to be any other way. The crisis with Trump, Musk and the Republicans appears unstoppable. They have the power, and a fanatical devotion to their goal of national destruction.

We have also seen this effect in the pro-democracy movement for the Southeast Asian nation, Burma. Some of the ethnic nationalities in this ethnically-diverse country rose up decades ago, because they were fighting for their survival. But not the largest group, the Bamar. (The generals in the junta that rules Burma are all Bamar.) Life was bad for them, but not bad enough. But when the regime ended the Aung San Suu Kyi (also a Bamar) pseudo-democracy with its coup four years ago (it never gave up real power, though), and then started killing the people who protested, that was it. That finally got them going. (Of course, many individuals had been wide awake and active, also for decades, and even formed revolutionary units like the All Burma Students Democratic Front - ABSDF).

Now we are faced with the situation in the U.S. I am tempted to say to hell with it. A majority of Americans want dictatorship. Let them have it.

The only thing holding me back is my experience with Burma (30+ years). I know, if the Trump/Musk junta succeeds, that nothing less than a new Revolutionary War will be required to drive them out and restore democracy. This will inevitably take a very long time (it always does), and there will be horrific suffering. It is much better to get rid of them now.

So, for the U.S. (and Burma - where there is now widespread revolt against their dictatorship), it is far preferable that it not get worse before it gets better. But without Democratic Party officials doing something - rebelling - there's little hope. In America you can be an activist and have an impact - on local issues. But to change the nationwide system, even getting millions of people into the streets, in this day and age, with tech-plutocrats having near absolute power, won't do much. (Although we do need millions to protest - to force the officials to act on our behalf). Only with the Party united and speaking with one radical voice is there any chance. Only then can we regain power for the people, reverse the damage, and address the fundamental issues, including eliminating corporate personhood, billionaire-funded election campaigns (and billionaires!), amendments to the Constitution, and reform of the Supreme Court.

But, as this week's traitor liefest showed (Trump's congressional address), we still have so far to go. The Democratic Party is its own form of dictatorship, and leaders Schumer and Jeffries not only won't do anything, they are blocking unified direct action by others to stop him. It seems in this case we don't have a choice. It will get worse before it gets better. We have to oppose both the "democracy leaders" and the actual tyrant (and his party).

Interestingly enough, something like this also happened in Burma. Suu Kyi, like Schumer and Jeffries, would not confront the regime. (The generals were her "friends.") She negotiated a democracy for show system so she personally could have the appearance of power. (It was vanity power.) It was only when, after some years, that the junta generals tired of allowing even this, that they launched their coup and at the same time imprisoned her. So what motivated the people was not only that they were being shot, but that her cooling effect was taken away.

The U.S. at this point does not require change through violence. But we do need Schumer and Jeffries to step back from their "seniority positions of power" to let younger, energetic and social media savvy people organize the opposition. The fact that there was not a boycott at Trump's speech was unforgivable. It was such a no-brainer. But they couldn't help themselves and their lifelong desire to "be seen." They have to move out of the way.

WHEN THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENS: COULD AMERICA HAVE ITS FIRST COUP?

When I look at what is happening in the U.S. one thought keeps coming through all the horror and other noise: This is not sustainable.

Democracy is sustainable. It can hum along, with power cycling from one political party to another, for decades. And it is the same with dictatorship. Totalitarian regimes can also last for a very long time.

But what is happening now is way too much. If Trump and Musk want to destroy the government, they can do it. If they want to destroy the economy, they can do it. If they want a lot of Americans to die (for Trump, a lot more Americans), they can enable it - in many different ways. But you can't get away with this in a free society. The people ultimately will not take it. You can in a dictatorship, though, if you are willing to kill actively, with guns, not just passively, with propaganda and policy.

Can Trump and Musk turn America into a Russia or China-style dictatorship in four years? I'm not saying it is impossible, but I still believe it is unlikely. He would have to instigate a national crisis and then order the United States Generals and Admirals to have their troops attack and kill the people. I don't believe the Generals and Admirals would do it. I'm also not sure that even soldiers who are conditioned to follow any order would pull their triggers at crowds of Americans. In such an event I believe many soldiers would refuse to follow orders and also turn against any soldiers who did. Our heavily armed public would immediately start fighting back as well. At this point global stock markets and the global economy would collapse. It would make the Great Depression look small.

But, consider the possibility. Imagine open warfare in America's cities, towns and suburbs. How long could that last before there was a reverse coup at the top, before both Trump and Musk were deposed?

So the possibility of America becoming a dictatorship under Trump is far fetched. This means at most that he will be gone in four years. (Similarly, I believe the country would never accept him for another term, as it is Constitutionally prohibited).

Still, what is underway now cannot even last four years. It isn't sustainable. How is the change going to happen? How will we get rid of Trump?

SOCIAL SECURITY

I'm not the first to notice this, but Trump - and Musk specifically - are trying to reduce the deficit by killing off a significant number of Baby Boomers. We saw this earlier with the Covid pandemic, where it is estimated that the 1.2 million deaths in America (under Trump's watch) will reduce future social security payments by over 200 billion dollars. Now they are using a multi-prong strategy: imposing inadequate health care, by cutting Medicaid and Medicare; ending medical research - the latest cuts are on Alzheimer's research; and both paving the way for a new pandemic, and a failed response thereafter - thanks to anti-vaccine HHS head Kennedy. Musk is probably hoping for ten million "extra deaths" from all of this, to cut Social Security payouts by a trillion. (If he cuts Social Security payments to living retirees as well - this will be a type of premeditated murder - the numbers will go even higher.)

This is the exact same as the strategy of United Health Care. They take your insurance premiums when you are healthy but if you get ill in a way that requires expensive treatment they deny you care and just sit back and watch you die. Under Trump and Musk the U.S. will continue to apply social security tax to your income during your working life but then engineer it so that you don't live as long.

They are truly fucking evil. They don't see people as people, as individuals. We are just tools and then problems to them, useful when we are young and healthy but not worth keeping around when we get old. A simple question, then, is who should go, Us or Them?

KARMA

My own view is that the people in the United States deserve everything they are about to get. It's the only way you learn, from making mistakes and feeling pain.

For the Republicans, they are in a cult and nothing will break the spell. Even when the country has descended into hell they won't change their allegiance. Their fellow party members died in the hundreds of thousands in the pandemic, for listening to Trump and refusing to wear masks or to get vaccinations. This somehow had no consequence. The dead's surviving relatives are still Republicans. If the deaths of loved ones don't change you, then you are gone too and nothing matters. Welcome to the asylum.

For Democrats and Independents, how can you continue to go on normalizing? He's a rapist. He's a felon. Jack Smith said he would have been convicted for trying to prevent the peaceful transfer of power four years ago, had the prosecution not been blocked. The evidence is that strong. This would have barred him from office and put him in prison for the rest of his life. How can you forget these things? You should oppose - stop completely wherever and whenever possible, anything he tries to do. Just like the Republicans did to Obama and Biden. Fight fire with fire.

Simple question: The man next door is being tried for raping, murdering and eating kids. But, he gets off on a technicality. He still lives next door. Do you act as if nothing has happened? Do you invite him to lunch and introduce him to your children?

What the fuck is wrong with you? Fight back!